The Investor's Short Time Behavior Demonstration Analyses

In behavior finance study ·After Master Robert· J Shiller succeeds forecast US in 2000 stock market's froth, the behavior finance study only then started to receive the widespread attention. The behavior finance study thought the investor is not homogeneity, the non-rational investor exists massively, and thought investor's investment behavior and the mood have had the very tremendous influence to the stock price. On the other hand because our country stock market is not mature, coexists in the massive individual investors, therefore conducts the analysis research to our country investor behavior to appear especially urgently. Therefore this article take the behavior finance research way, has carried on a more comprehensive analysis by the investor mood as the foundation to our country investor behavior.First this article used expands the Dick - fuller model the card index to carry on the time series analysis to our country in, finally indicated the index the returns ratio might not forecast. Afterwards, this article has divided into the investor two kinds: Organization investor and individual investor. The former refers to the specialized investment public figure, they have the rich knowledge, the information and the technical method. The latter refers to "the odd dealer" who we usually said, they lack the enough information and the technical method. And analyzed these two kind of investors in not to be possible to forecast in front of the data the behavior performance, they all had the obvious cognition deviation. Moreover these two kind of investors all cannot forecast effectively the future income, they will do the forecast all will be non-rational. Finally through the Granger cause and effect examination, we might see the returns ratio to cause the organization investor mood change, but has not related with individual investor mood. The examination also discovered that, individual investor and the organization investor's mood is does not affect mutually, this and the very many research conclusion is opposite, and between them the correlation coefficient for negative indicated, between two kind of investor's mood as if have the contradiction.