Research On Customer Lifetime Value Of Electronic Commerce Website

Behavior law and the customer feature in E-business are different with traditional commercial pattern, manage along with customer relation perfect gradually, have put forward higher requirement for customer lifetime value, the customer lifetime value problem that E-business has next environment has become recent research focus point. In existing customer lifetime value research, the customer lifetime value research for E-business website lacks quantitative analysis comparatively less, the purpose of the research of this paper is to found a systematization analysis model to estimate the customer lifetime value of E-business website.Manage theory with customer life period and customer relation for basis, the customer characteristic according to E-business website on, when revising the foundation of general customer lifetime value analysis model, based on Markov chain and customer radom purchase behavior model, have established the customer lifetime value analysis model of E-business website. Lead into RFM model and Bayes probability to determine model parameter, had been made model each parameter is specific and definite method.Since the customer of E-business website is huge, also, consumer level is disproportionate, this paper leads into data excavation technology , carries out clustering for the customer data of E-business website. When really choosing K-mean in certificate analysis to assemble kind of method, through SAS8.0 software have realized X enterprise E-business website customer data assemble kind. Basis assembles kind of rear result, adoption the model established , through Mathematica4.0 software calculate the lifetime value of this website each kind of customer respectively.Research shows as a result , combines RFM model and Markov chain can efficiently foresee E-business website customer more to purchase the change of behavior , assemble in advance using data excavation technology for customer kind may remedy model in analysis different quality customer deficiency, and may for different purchase the customer of state carries out effective forecast, so prove that this model has good validity and the practicality than winner.The research of this paper way of thinking, the model put forward as well as method, have perfected further the customer lifetime customer relation that worths appraisement theory and may apply in E-business website to manage , make enterprise may concentrate resource to develop high value customer better, in order to raise its economic benefits.