Comparative Study On Corn Futures Markets Of China And The United States

After years of development, Corn, one of the earliest varieties in world futures market, has become one of the most active agricultural products in the futures market. The United States is the largest country in corn production and consumption, and its well-functioned spot market provides a good basis for the development of the corn futures market. In the United States, the effective connection between futures market represented by CBOT and spot market has not only played an important part in domestic corn production and circulation, but also exerts great influence on the world corn market. The CBOT futures price formed in the open bidding trade has also become the direction indicator of world corn price, according to which the producers all over the world estimate and predict the developing trend of future market in order to adjust and arrange production and operation. China is the second larger country in corn production and consumption. The change of corn price exerts great influence on its national economy. After more than one year's development, the corn futures market, which was first launched in Dalian Commodity Exchange on September 22, 2004, has expanded continually and functioned well. The futures price reflects the real demand and supply of spot market and the effective connection between futures market and spot market has been achieved. It has been the task for many domestic scholars to carry out comparative analysis on the corn futures markets of China and the United States and learn from the successful operation of American CBOT corn futures market. On the basis of the comparative analysis of internal institutional differences between corn futures markets of China and the United States, this thesis is to study the correlation and causal effect between the corn futures markets of China and the United States and discuss their balance through Co-Integration theory.Focusing on the corn futures markets of China and the United States, the thesis sums up the experience of the successful operation of American CBOT corn futures market and analyzes the differences between corn futures markets of China and the United States like the external environment difference and internal institutional difference. The thesis carries out Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Co-Integration, Granger Causality Test to analyze the correlation and causal effect between corn futures markets of China and the United States using time series data consisted of the daily data of corn futures prices in both Chicago Commodity Exchange the United States and Dalian Commodity Exchange China and its corresponding spot prices from September 22, 2004 to September 30, 2005. The thesis also builds long-term equilibrium model and...