Output Fluctuation Analysis Based On Oil Price Shock

Adopting complete competition market and capital adjustment cost,within the analysis framework of New Classical economics,this paper discusses influence which oil price fluctuation impose on output,especially how oil price fluctuation lead to negative correlation and asymmetry correlation between oil price fluctuation and output fluctuation,such analysis is taken out through the channel of oil price-oil usage quantity-capital utilization rate;the conclusion is that oil price's fluctuation direct effect can serve as negative technical shock,and that whether the capital adjustment cost function performs continuity is the key condition of asymmetry correlation.Meanwhile,considering the shortcoming that only oil serves as energy which influence output, the paper also discusses oil substitution energy's role in influencing output,the concrete analysis method is taking oil and its substitute energy into the paradigm of Real Business Cycle,regarding oil price fluctuation proceture as a stochastic technical shock processes,so as to analyze influence which oil price fluctuation and development of science imposed on output, labor, consumption and other macroeconomic variable in long run;basing on the model's equilibrium conditions,this paper analyze interaction between each production element in terms of model's special solution and the phase diagram,the conclusion is that not only investment but also capital stock's growth is under limitation of science's development , at the same time , the influence of oil price fluctuation will decrease.Under these theoretical analysis,referring to western country's successful experience,this paper discusses energy security especially oil security, some measures of improving these condition and some problems need to solve.