The Research About The Risk Of The Price Of The Oil Import

The petroleum is called that it is"the blood"of the modern industry, and it is important to the entire national economy development. Along with the fast development of the economy in our country, the import of the petroleum in our country has increased fast. As a special commodity, the important of the petroleum has more risk. Firstly, this article analyzes the present situation of the petroleum's import based on summarizing the articles and the theory related, and know the scale of the import increased, the import's source centralized, the proportion of the crude oil's import increased and the ability of the price's control is not strong, these are the characteristics of the petroleum's import, and analyses the risk of the petroleum import from the politics, the price and the transported, and know the price risk in chief.. Secondly, it analyzes the reason of the risk about the petroleum's import, this analysis obtain four aspects, they are the contradiction of the supply and demand of the petroleum in our country and abroad, the mechanism of the domestic price and the essential petroleum strategic reserve. The fourth part introduces many things about the VaR firstly, then it selected the WTI crude oil's price from January 2, 1996 to August 29, 2006 as the data for the model, and estimates the parameter by the GARCH model, then calculate the VAR of the risk of the petroleum's import in our country by the parameter, and using the VAR analyze the risk of the petroleum's import in our country. Finally this article proposed some suggestion to avoid the risk from the demand,the supply and the right of deciding the international price.