| Urban logistics analysis and forecast is an important content and the first premise in urban logistics planning. The key of planning with scientificity and rationality is depended on forecast veracity which is also the basic basis of policy deciding, logistics infrastructure investing and constructing, logistics supply system improving.Firstly, logistics demand is a kind of derivation demand, the scale of which has an inseparable inner link with its original demand. Therefore, economic factors and non-economic factors are analyzed, among which, there is a strong correlation between urban logistics demand and urban economy. Logistics scale and structure are jointly decided by economic scale and industrial structure.Secondly, by analyzing the affecting factors and current logistics statistic situation of our country, urban logistics demand forecast index system is established. The overall scale of logistics demand is reflected by freight index and logistics cost index. Meanwhile, the inner relation between freight and logistics cost is mapped by freight intensity, which provides a new viewpoint and rational gist to build a mathematic model. According to above theory and adopting tools such as Matlab 5.6,SPSS,Statistica Neural Networks 4.0, logistics demand scale of Shanghai is studied.Finally, according to the thought of location economy theory and regional reciprocity theory, freight market is subdivided by established mathematic model. Competition ratio of each logistics node in subdivided market is reckoned by adopting AHP method, and hereto effective demand of logistics node is definition. The purpose of computing logistics node effective demand is to check the whole characteristics of demand market in its service range, to provide rational numeric gist of logistics node planning. |
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