Applied Research On Real Option Approach In Investment Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

As the enterprise operation environment is becoming more and more complex and uncertain, the traditional investment decision methods, represented by the NPV principle, can not be suitable for evaluating the real value of the project any longer due to neglecting of the managerial flexibilities and strategic adaptability. But the Real Option Theory can make up the limitation that it take the possible opportunities, flexibilities, and uncertainties as options to analyze. The real option method is an important development of the decision-making theory and method since it can improve the veracity of investment decision under uncertainty, and it must have a wide development foreground. So the research must have important theoretical meanings and practical value.In this thesis, a combination of the quantitative and qualitative analyses was adopted to research on investment decision methods based on the real option theory. Fistly, it analysed the limitation of the traditional investment decision methods, brought forwards the Real Options, and introduced the definition, classification, nature of the Real Options, and the procedures and features of the Real Options Methods.Secondly, briefly introduced the current three kind of Real Option pricing method——Partial Differential Equation, Dynamic Programming Approach, and Simulations, and carried on the adjustment and the revision of the Option Pricing Model from the view of duplication error and the risk neutrality supposition.The practical application discussion divides into two parts, first proposed the Real Option Appraisal Method in high technology and new technology industrial production projects, appove the superiority of ROA compared with the tradition method by an example, and carried on the sensitive analysis. Then through four cases——defer investment, staged investment, superaddition investment and correlation investment to discuss the application value of Real Options in the uncertainty strategic investment decision-making.Finally, proposed some author's thoughts of the Real Options in the reality application: affirmed the significance of the Real Options in the uncertainty strategic investment decision-making; proposed to establish the flexible decision-making system based on Real Options and the key Problems; analyzed the limitation of Real Options in the investment appraisal application, and proposed two viewpoints of...