Study Of Grey System Theory Applied To Risk Management For Hydropower Engineering Project

The social and economic benefits of Hydropower Engineering Project are great, however, technology, market, economic, management and environment confined it development. There are a lot of unpredicted and random factors made Hydropower Engineering Project risky. So it is meaningful to research on hydropower engineering project risk management.This thesis used method of grey system theory, Delphi, analytic hierarchy process, technique for order preference by grey similarity to ideal solution, quantitative and qualitative analysis, and used theories of project management, risk management, project evaluation to hydropower engineering project risk management.This thesis combines the modern risk management theory with the hydropower projects' features and practices in our country, raises the conception of the hydropower project risk management. Traditional mathematical methods have their limitation because of uncertainty and unintegrity of information in hydropower project risk management. Therefore, this thesis attempts at inaccurate mathematical method, grey system theory. In this thesis, most chapters are devoted to the elementary research on the application of grey system theory in hydropower project risk management. First, actuality about hydropower project risk management is addressed and main problems about hydropower project risk management in china are summarized. Then, bases on the actuality about hydropower project risk management in china, this thesis discusses the application of grey relation analysis and grey clustering in hydropower project risk management; and designs hydropower project risk assessment index system and builds a grey synthetical evaluation model about hydropower project risk management. Finally, this thesis improves the decision-making method of risk management in the hydropower projects by putting forward the way to substitute grey relation grade for traditional distance. Grey relation grade and TOPSIS comes into being a new multi-objective decision-making method, technique for order preference by grey similarity to ideal solution, using example to explain the validity of this method.