Urban-network's Reliability Cost Evaluation Under Uncertainty

On the basis of domestic and international relevant research results, this paper summarized the indexes and relevant evaluation methods of urban-network reliability evaluation, systematically analyzed uncertain influence factors to urban-network reliability.Aim at the defects of the traditional approach, the reliability evaluation index system including the outage costs is put forward, and the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis model on the basis of the interval analysis is presented. By introducing relevant theories of the outage costs and the interval analysis, the new analysis model quantified the influence of uncertain factors to urban-network reliability, and made the reliability economics evaluation reasonable under the complicated conditions. In the end, the analysis model is used to economically evaluate the urban-network reliability of the city of Mudanjiang, and some countermeasures are proposed which can promote the development of the urban-network reliability.