An Empiric Study Of The Effect Of The Change Of RMB Exchange Rate On Our Foreign Trade

After the reform of RMB exchange rate system, the more marketability mechanism will increase the change of the exchange rate. To our country, this will not only involve the change of RMB to other countries' currency value, but also will affect our foreign trade.This article discusses the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on our foreign trade from two angles. One is the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on our bilateral trade; the other is the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the import and export of our industry. This article carries on the theoretical analysis and elaborates the theory about the influence of the exchange rate on the trade and the channel of the exchange rate influence trade revenue and expenditure.About the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on our foreign trade, this article utilizes Johnsen cointegration, and examines the relations of the trade and RMB exchange rate between our country and our eight main trade countries. This article concludes the trade and RMB exchange rate has the long-term relation, but RMB exchange rate does not have any influence on bilateral trade in sino-America and sino-Japan. Thus this article concludes the economic of US works its trade deficit and it is no reason of Japan to hope to improve deflation by appreciating RMB exchange rate. This article also discovered the influence of RMB exchange rate on the trade is big between China and European countries. So we should enlarge the proportion of Eurocurrency in the currency basket, and consider the influence of the pound to reduce the adverse effect. Moreover the influence of RMB exchange rate on the bilateral trade between China and Singapore is big. We may enlarge the cooperation in the East Asian monetary area to reduce the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the trade.About the influence of RMB exchange rate on our different industries, this article divides industries into the primary products and the industrial finished products according to "Chinese Statistics Yearbook", and selects three types of products in each big kind. Then this article utilizes Johnsen cointegration to examine the relations of the import, export and RMB exchange rate. This article concludes that the change of RMB exchange rate will worsen the export of the primary products but the influence is not big. But the influence of RMB...