Impacts And Countermeasures Of Oil Price Fluctuation To Hubei Economy

The world crude oil price has bid up to new high continuously since 2004, oil will intensify the impact on the world and our economy. The Hubei economy is in the middle of industrialization progress, increasing by the ratio of 10% each year. With the high-speed increase of the demand of crude oil, our country is more and more reliant crude oil. Along with the import volume of petroleum, the fluctuation of oil price will intensify the impact on our economy. But our country has not still set up the complete safe defense system of oil, the deeper it relies on , the more dangerous it face.Firstly, this thesis described present situation of energy production and consumption in Hubei province, and reviewed the energy development strategy in last five years. Then we analyzed the rigorous situation of petroleum supply that Hubei province faces. Using factor analysis , clustering and other statistics method to investigate secondary energy consumption of different industries. So that we can find out the industries which relies on oil mostly.Secondly, analyse the effects of price of petroleum on regional economy. By analyzing the mechanism of international petroleum price and the domestic oil-pricing policy , analysed the influence of price of petroleum on macro economy and varied industry, the negative impact of drastic oil fluctuation is evident, especially oil refining, agriculture, carrying trade and the automotive industry, etc. Otherwise, the Hubei economy will keep growing in the near future.Using the quantitative method, we found influences models of the price of petroleum. Using models to analyse the mechanism and the strengthen of oil-price impact on Hubei economy. Based on historical data, TARCH model of WTI price is built up to demonstrate conditional heteroskedasticity and leverage effect in oil market.Lastly, have put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to Hubei province's oil security. Point out that the government of Hubei should set up the complete safe defense system of oil, and encourage enterprises evade the risk of oil price with finance derives. Hubei also need to take an active part in constructing strategic oil reserve base so that we can make a firm foundation for the long term steady development of Hubei province.