Research On The Household Precautionary Saving In China

Since the reformation, Chinese government constituted and implemented a series of policies on the basis of the domestic situation and international position. These made economy quickly develop and the comprehensive national strength also had the bigger exaltation, our country got brilliant and obvious achievements in many aspects. The level of the residents'savings also kept persistent and fast increase which became the phenomenon of high savings from the reformation. The high savings of residents not only lowered the consumptive level, and also could not effectively transform to investment to drive the development of the economy. Aiming at this kind of phenomenon, partial scholars already analyzed the reasons from the angle of the precautionary saving currently, which were based on the theories about the precautionary saving in western country and the increases of the future incertitude of the residents that were brought about by a series of reformatory measures.The research of this paper is based on the theories of the precautionary savings, directly establish tow models of the savings function, then comparatively analyze and prove if the precautionary motive influences the household savings, namely, if the households exists the precautionary savings. Firstly, the author think that the main reason of the precautionary motive of the households is the expectation of the future incertitude, but the expectation should include both income and expenditure in China, and the future incertitude of the expenditure have the main position among them. Secongdly, considering the domestic situation, the author qualitatively analyzes the factors that can cause the expectation of the future incertitude of the households. Moreover the author collect and process the relevant data of 35 cities to be the representative of the total level, then quantitatively analyzes the models. The results of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis testify precautionary motive is the important factor influencing household savings, the moderate precautionary savings can raise the positive effect to the macroscopic economy, but once it exceeded the reasonable limit and then will produce the negative effect. Therefore, finally the...