The Econometric Models And Empirical Analysis Of Residents' Consumption In China

The research of consumption theory is important content of macroeconomics or microeconomics. Analyzing the characteristics of consumer demand of residents' is very meaningful for constituting the policy and our economic growth.Residents' consumption and income standard have been increasing rapidly since the economic reform has taken place in China. The transformed consumption patterns of urban and rural residents and expanded consumption requirement became main motivations of our fast economy growth. However, the average consumption preference has dropt a lot, especially in current years, consumption passion also kept low. Although the government has carried out many policies to stimulate the consumption, the bank saving still increased rapidly.Therefore, studying the law of consumer behavior and the internal courses of insufficient consumer demand is practical meaningful for securing macroeconomic economy run. This paper based on Precautionary Saving Theory uses Co-integration technology to analyze factors of the consumer behavior from practical perspective.1.I analyzed the overall consumption situation of urban and rural residents to find out the reasons of Preventive motives in China's consumer behavior.2. To avoid false regression arising from the instability data, I used the advanced econometric theory to set up a function of consumption in urban and rural areas of the error correction model. From both short-term and long-term view, I studied residents' expenditure and income uncertainty influenced consumption behavior3. In order to depict the Chinese people's consumption behavior' characteristics more fully and accurately , I established urban residents and rural residents model so as to show more clearly the different degrees of uncertainty for the residents feel.4. We gave the suggestions for insufficient consume demand resulted from precautionary motives. Residents' income growth, social security system, public service pricing, labor supply are important factors in determining consumer demand. Therefore we want to reduce the restrained extent from precautionary saving motives and stimulate consumer demand according to different factors.