RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Empirical Analysis After Reformation Of RMB Exchange Rate At 2005

On July 21, 2005, China has carried on the RMB exchange rate reform which attracts worldwide attention. Since The People's Bank of China announced that RMB/US exchange rate revalue 2.1%, achieved 8.11 Yuan/US, gived up the actual execution nail fast US dollar policy from 1998, transfers refers to a basket currency, up to now already a year and half. In this more than year of time, how's RMB exchange rate undulation, and the RMB exchange rate undulation trend, as well as how do we grasp the RMB exchange rate's undulation? In the article authors will make the analysis.First, from the introduce of the exchange rate system reform in 2005, review this RMB exchange rate reform's background, the contented and the result , contrast analysis the factor which affected RMB exchange rate before and after reform, then has analyzed RMB exchange rate undulation's impacts at several big markets in the money market.Second, from the analysis of RMB exchange rate undulation situation, and the RMB to the main currency come up and down, as well as the actual effective exchange rate Steady appreciation , we will obtain the RMB exchange rate undulation's new characteristics; Because RMB exchange rate undulation frequently day after day, the scope gradually enlarges, trend to decided by the market, so it had the practical significance to grasp the RMB exchange rate assurance in future, is also imminent to the RMB exchange rate short-term forecast, so the ARIMA model has carried on the forecast analysis to the RMB to the main currency.Finally, the RMB exchange rate's fluctuations should stability, and the stable measures of RMB exchange rate's fluctuations were gived.