The Evolution Of Bubble Theories In The Financial Market And The Empirical Analyses

In recent years, the economic relationship between all the countries is deepened, and the global economics have already been incorporated. The bubbles are covering almost every corner of the financial market. Their generation, swelling and bursting usually influence a person, a corporation, an industry or even a country, providing them circumstances of "Heaven" or "Hades". And more and more economists are attracted to study me rule of bubbles as well as the risk control of the financial market.In the academic field, researches on bubbles are recently manifolded. Sometimes economists can get different results even from the same bubble phenomenon. So it is necessary to grasp the most effective way out of miscellaneous methods. Summing up the advancement and deficiency of the main theoretic models will not only mergers and perfects present bubble theories, but also provides a clear foundation to further and deepen the development of bubble research. What's more, it can provide a point of view to the practical study and can prepare some logical policies for the real financial market to enhance its efficiency.In this paper, we choose the bubble theories of financial market, which include the most active study papers of bubbles, as the core object. Studying their theoretic development can help us not only know the present models clearly, but also easily find their future developing orientation. Also, we will use a most close-to-fact test method to check our country's bubbles of stock market from the demonstration aspect, and try to give some politic relevant suggestions.This thesis consists of five parts, which are briefly highlighted below:Part I is the introduction, which mainly deals with the famous bubble phenomena, the practical significance of this paper, bubble definitions of different scholars and some relative notions.Part II is the summarization for the bubble theories, which mainly include two aspects of rational bubble theory and crazy bubbles theory. Those two theories are based on different rational anticipation hypotheses. And each gives one explanation about bubbles in the real world. At the end of this part, we also compare the two theories from three aspects.Part III is about the test methods of financial market bubbles, which include fundamental-based test and non-fundamental-based test. This part is a transition from the theoretic study to the real analyses.Part IV gives a demonstration analysis based on the data of our country's stock market. The result of this part is that there really exist rational bubbles in our present stock market.Part V focuses on some policy suggestions on our present stock market, and the risk control of our financial market.