A Preliminary Study On Quantitative Risk Analysis For Mechatronics Projects

After entering the WTO, the step of China's economic development accelerates greatly, at the same time, the introduction of advanced technology from foreign countries speeds up quickly. Nowadays, the safety and reliability of the project has received more and more attention, and the need of risk analysis increases gradually. As a new cross-subject of applied mathematics, the research on both basic theories and practical by using of probabilistic risk analysis which consists of judgment theory, uncertainty analysis theory and statistical probability is still a weak point in China, lacking of experts who are proficient in risk analysis and academic repertory. Up to now, the ability to predict and control risk remains on the level of listing some risk parameters in China. We still don't have a specific knowledge about the quantitative measure and estimate of risk. After a general study on the advanced risk analysis theories, in this thesis, my work is focusing on the expert judgment analysis module in probabilistic risk analysis and giving an application example in the field of mechanical engineering based on the J2EE platform.Main research content includes:1,the flow of probabilistic risk analysisThis thesis analyzes the general international flow of probabilistic risk analysis thoroughly and introduces in detail the three modules in probabilistic risk analysis respectively. Moreover, it introduces the latest probabilistic inversion algorithm---PARFUM algorithm;2,introduction of the expert judgment analysis theoryThis thesis systematically studies the development background and history of expert opinion as well as its importance in probabilistic risk analysis. After comparing the advantages and disadvantages of several methods, this thesis presents the optimization expert judgment method, which applies the expert's opinion scientifically.3,realization of the expert judgment analysis systemBased on J2EE (Java 2nd Enterprise Edition) platform, adapted the standard B/S structure, this thesis realizes the expert judgment system through software, and makes it possible for the expert telnet to make judgment.4,example of a mechanical engineering projectFinally, a mechanical engineering project verifies the expert judgment analysis system.