| The research of the monetary is always the important field in the economics, while the crucial problem in this field is how the variation of the monetary effects the other economy variations, especially the output; if there is effection , what the effection is . At present, the economist at home and abroad believe that the variation of the monetary really effects the other economy variations , which can be seen in the lots of the results of the research . But it is different that the impression of the effection : Friedman thought that the real output is the correlation with the disturbance in the supply of the money in 1963, and Granger in 1969 found that monetary effect the output observably ; but sims found that the effection of the monetary and real output will be lower if there is rate in the real output and money by the causality test of the structure variable, so the dynamic rate will be better in explaining the change of the output than the money.Monetary and economic circles of China's domestic output of theoretical and empirical analysis of most relevance : changes in the money supply in the short term have a major impact on output, which is short-term non-neutral; But with the long-term impact of the currency is a long-term neutral. Outputs from the long-term changes are factors other than the actual monetary factors. However, because the study is based on the basic theory and the methods of measurement, the specific results of the study, there are still many controversial viewsIt can be seen therefore, important theoretical basis for the formulation of policy. Therefore this will be the three most representative of the cumulative effect of monetary theory -- theory Wicksell, The quantity theory of money and the money after Keynesian theory -- the domestic currency, Theoretical analysis of the different structures and different policy implications. 2006 in 1994 to combine the macro and quarterly data on currency movements into the relevance of the dynamic changes in output Empirical Analysis trip, and to explore what kind of theory to explain our economic situation is more convincing. Finally, the results of the monetary policy and control money supply in the Enlightenment.In these three theories, Wicksell's theory is that the cumulative effect of monetary policy goal is to achieve an ideal state, making the real interest rate and the natural rate of the central bank set the same. This is the so-called "pegging interest rate" policy operated. With similar post-Keynesian who will be one of the discount rate or equivalent. Central Bank is to meet the demand for loans by other financial institutions put the number "84". monetary authorities to control the economy as the ultimate goal of monetary operations; But with Weikesaier different is that they believe that The change in bank interest rates have little direct impact on the rate of inflation. to influence the rate of inflation is only nominal wage changes. Thus, the total demand by influencing interest rates will have an impact on the economy. And the amount of money represented by Milton Friedman, argued that the monetary policy of pegging interest rates in the long run is impossible. This is consistent with this philosophy is different, then what rate should not be used as the operating objectives of monetary policy. This is one aspect of this paper to be discussed.The other, regardless of the prevailing wind to the Keynesian or monetarist in the moment and not the same growth rate of fixed rules, Exogenous in the money supply are the prerequisites. But after Weikesaier Keynesian theory and the cumulative effect of the domestic currency in money supply is endogenous theory as a prerequisite The. This is one of the main aspects of this study.Third, the Post-Keynesian theory is a completely different from the quantity theory of money and currency, It subversion outputs from the orthodox theory of supply, demand by the general inflation causal sequence. In the post-Keynesian theories, the rate of inflation is the supply side to determine the cost of the advance, and the outputs of effective demand. Due to the lack of flexibility and interest rates, interest rates have little impact on aggregate demand. Well, in reality, monetary policy will be quite ineffective. Whether Friedman or a representative of the quantity theory of money Wicksell's theory that the cumulative effect of monetary policy is effective , and should take appropriate monetary policy objectives of macroeconomic reasonably appropriate intervention. In the study, We chose the first quarter of 1994 from the fourth quarter of 2006 were 52 quarterly data for statistical verification. Using VAR model of economic systems modeling, and on this basis the entire sample interval and were conducted in phases (1994-2000 and 2001 -2006 two stages) and the Granger causality test pulse corresponding function test. and the money supply into the test with the output rate and the introduction of the test in two ways. After reviewing the conclusions :1. Obviously exist between the money supply and output of the two-way relationship. But this is a downward relationship, namely : the excessive money supply will cause inflation. too little of the money supply without significant impact on the economy. No matter what kind of situation we need to avoid, it is necessary to control the money supply appropriately invested.2. Currency is endogenous, and that such endogenous relatively strong. The official result of this strong presence of endogenous, China's economic operation prone to inflation or deflation situation, the need to reasonably control money supply.3. Have implications for macroeconomic adjustment of interest rates. However, because of the current interest rate control, and therefore such a relatively limited impact. In particular, the actual outputs of the ultimate goal of monetary policy is not significantly affected. It will not affect the interest rate will become a powerful lever for the macroeconomic impact, as long as interest rates continue to deepen market-oriented reform, Then interest rates would be an efficient and effective tool of monetary policy.4. Money supply and interest rates on certain outputs of the delay. say monetary policy is not the immediate effect of the macro-regulation. Therefore, the government needs to consider operating the macroeconomic policy goals role in the time and sustained effect, This trend needs of the future to make an accurate judgment of the economic situation in a timely manner, changes in macroeconomic policies.5. Due to the complicated and ever-changing economic conditions, it is not simply say that a certain economic theory can fully reflect the reality, But Wicksell found by comparing the cumulative effect theory for example for the other two theories to explain our economic reality China's macroeconomic situation and economic guidance is to borrow moreWe can see that China's current policy, the financial system are not satisfactory, lagged behind the market-oriented economic reform and difficult to adapt to the rapid increase in the current level of demand, deepen reform, perfect system for the promotion of China's economic development is very good. |
PDF Full Text Request