The Analysis Of The Common Stock Index's Trend

This paper is mainly about technique analysis on investment theory. By study on the theories, I found two disadvantages about them; the first one is that it is hard to analyze the short-term trend by current theory; the second one is that, the continuous trend of index has not been solved. I try to solve this problem by bringing forward the conception of index mold piece.There are eleven parts in this paper:The first part is mainly defining the trend of index and disproving a prevalence opinion.The second part is advancing three postulates on trend analysis in a logistic way. The three postulates is: the behavior in market includes everything; the price changed by some typical trend; the structure of price running has repeated.The third part is advancing other important definitions, such as market's expectation, average cost, index number module, minimum resistance route.The fourth part is theoretically analysis of the theory of stock market reasonable expectation.The fifth part is listing the main content about Dow's theories, which gave a series of important definition of analysis of price trend.In the sixth part, I went deep into analysis of Dow's theories, then got the conclusion that Dow's theories is not suitable for one stock.Then, in the seventh part, the core opinion of Dow's theories was proved by time sequence examination.The eighth part is about the analysis of Arriver's wave theories.The ninth part is the core of this paper. I used the definition, which made in the second part by me, to analyze the short-term trend.The tenth part is the study on shanghai index of common stock by Arriver's wave theories.The eleventh part is about my feeling when I wrote this paper. The following opinion was advanced in the paper:1) The difference between investment and venture is that, there is whether or not safe borderline in the bargaining theory.2) The actor's everything in market was reflected.3) The theories of stock market reasonable expectation can't give the explanation the price trend.4) The index of price has self-relaxing.5) Dow's theories have time-lag in practice.6) Arriert's wave theories was also suitable for shanghai index of common stock.7) At present, shanghai index of common stock is in the third wave of identifiable repeating wave.