The Loan's Portfolio Research For Technology Industry Based On CreditRisk+Model

The development of technology industry is important for our country. Because our country's system of science and technology is not complete, science and technology devotion faces many problems, such as funds devotion shortage, low efficiency and lack of the financial tool etc. There are many high-technology industries included national important programs can't be realized for lack of money in nowadays. So it is important for the national policy bank to develop a method for the technology innovation. According to normal regulations of loan, the condition's judge make high-tech item hard to acquire valid loan support, so it is necessary for policy bank to design new methods of loan for high-technology industry and build up corresponding loan principles and risk management technology.All banks in the world encounter risk management. From 80's of 20's century, there are many new quantitative methods and models to calculate risk in western countries. To support high-tech industry get loan, policy bank not only need to study the foreign forerunner's credit risk management technique, but also need to study the characters of high-tech industry and policies to high-tech industry, so that policy bank can support the high-tech industry, and make sure the bank can make money.This paper is based on the projects"The loan's portfolio management research for the science and technology industry", which is supported by the China Development Bank and performed by Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. There are six chapters in this paper. First, I point out the necessity for high-technology industry's loan and risk management. Then introduce the definition, feature and stages of high-technology industry to understand high-technology better. In chapter 3, I review the history of risk management, and select a model to calculate the risk for science and technology firms by researching and comparing current important risk management models. Then review the history of loan's portfolio optimization and have a conclusion. In chapter 4, I introduce the CreditRisk+model and build the loan's portfolio optimization model. And I have an example to explain my model. At last, I give a conclusion and suggestion about my paper.The major work of this paper is: first, I make use of CreditRisk+ model to carry on risk to the high-tech industries' loan by comparing models of risk management. Then, based on CreditRisk+ model I make a loan's portfolio optimization model for high-technology industry and carried on a substantial evidence analysis. In the model according to technology industry's features and different support policy, the model gives the loan limit of technology industry in different stage. This model can't only support insured to loan money to the high-tech industry, also reduce risk to loan money to the high-tech industry. Last, compared with old methods of other papers, this model is more realistic and it can ensure profits and limit risk which bank loans money to the high-tech industry. This model provides a loaning money decision for the high-tech industry.