Research On The Urban Land Use Dynamic Change Simulation Based On Bayesian

Urban Construction Land extends excessively rapidly.The structure of Urban Land Use are simple.All of these influence the health development of Urbanization.Therefor,it is very useful building system for exploitation of Urban Land Resource by monitoring land resources dynamics and doing research on Urban Land Use Change .With the study deepen by people step by step,more and more models of dynamic change of Urban were constructed.They were used to do research on Land Use Dynamic Changes.However,There were problems about correcting of these model in common.It is very difficult to correct the model which could model the reality, nevertheless there were no enough attention to result of these model corrected.This paper put forward a model of Land Use Dynamic Change based on weight of evidence of Bayesian.It is a new ideal for Urban simulation.This paper put forward a model of Land Use Change on the basis of Cellular Automata.Its Location is drived by data.This manner is similarity with Chapin and Weiss' advanced in 1968.The main ideal is:the probability of Land Use Change is determined by social economic,planning factor and construction.Consequently,they can control the different type Land Use transition."Weight of evidence" is used to calculation the probability of cellular automata'transition.This procedure deals with weight of evidence and factors of Land Use Change which is used to update the aprior probability.Thereby,various heuristic procedure is used to simulation development of urban.Finally,we apply this model and system to simulation of Land Use Change in Ban'an,the pilot study proved that this model of Cellular Automata based on Bayesian is useful for simulation of Land Use Change of Urban.