Studies On The Prepayment Risk About Personal Housing Consumption Loan

The random interest is one of the kernel content of finance reformation in our country. Since joined the WTO, the finance market in our country is more open. Under the random interest, studying about the management of owes for commercial bank and elusion of finance risk seems more important. Establishing reasonable credit policy and getting more benefit under less risk will have great significance for improving the prosecution benefit and international power competition of commercial bank in our country.The behavior that the debtor pays back the loan partial or entire ahead of schedule instead of paying it back on time according to the debt contract is so called prepayment. The research on prepayment has been always the emphasis of foreign scholars. In the past, no fixed interest rate was used for the mortgage in our country and so the risk of prepayment was not serious and there was not enough research on this subject. But as the appearance of loading interest rate in the mortgage this year, the risk of prepayment is becoming more and more serious. Therefore, the research on prepayment becomes very important and urgent. Based on the previous research and combing the situation of our country, this article elaborates prepayment. This paper has analyzed the causes of prepayment. Then the essay discussed the key interest rate factor comprehensively and explained several kinds of typical interest rate models and interest rate route simulation technology. This paper has discussed the proportional model on prepayment. At the same time, the essay has provided the Weibull distribution model and Cox distribution model. Then this paper has discussed the rule-violation of the prepayment, and investigated the general operational mechanism and the risk recognition of prepayment. Then, the essay emphasizes that the government should speed up the step of financial reform which establishes a good market environment for the housing mortgage. This paper emphasized that our country should speed up the financial reform, in order to make a nicer environment of the control of the prepayment risk. At last ,based on the overseas experience and the domestic situation, this essay has suggested several proposals in order to reference the banks in our country.