| Since 1998, Taking open market operation as the indirect currency of lord to adjust to control a mechanism, the interest rate market turn of gradually mature, for our country better land utilization of the National Central Bank, used prospect monetary policy rule to provide to add a more perfect condition. The Taylor rule assert to set short-term name interest rate tool to adjust to control economy movement and carry out under the different rule of monetary policy.Therefore, the monetary policy rule of the research prospect is in the applicability within frame of the our country monetary policy, not only be advantageous to interest rate system of manage the agreeable our country further, and for aftertime our country better carry out prospect monetary policy rule to provide necessary theories preparation.1.An overview about Taylor's rule studyIn recent years, the lag property of the monetary policy conduct makes the currency authorities pay attention to day by day the prospect monetary policy. Haldane and Batini(1998) think that expectation inflation can body all the information included by economic index sign which reflects the inflation path, based on the interest rate rule of inflation expectation(the forecast-based of the Inflation), the short-term interest rate can make a reaction to the inflation expectation, prospect rule can nicely body the lag property of monetary policy conduct.Svensson(1999, 2004, 2005), Giannoni and Woodford(1999, 2002), Giannoni(2006 analyze influence of the model indetermination and exterior impact to robust of the superior prospect monetary policy of the monetary policy through setting up the period loss function, discover that the steady monetary policy rule requests a central bank just to anticipate the policy behavior of central bank, make use of an economic structure model to emulate economic development to draw up homologous monetary policy. But Haldane and Batini(1998), Batini and Nelson(2000) think that the indetermination of economic structure model may to a large extent influence the estimate result of monetary policy rule.Given that facing unsteady of economic structure, simple Taylor's rule is more robust than that of macroscopic economic structure model control.Currently, the domestic representative research concerning monetary policy rule includes: Original Taylor's rule and the prospect Taylor's rule of Clarida, Gali and Gertler(1997, 2000) both can fittingly describe the specific trend of our inter-bank borrowing rate, inter-bank borrowing rate can be a reference basis of central bank monetary policy, but Chinese monetary policy is inherent unsteady.(Ping Xie and Xiong Luo, 2002,Jun Lu and Dan Zhong, 2003). Under the foundation of new Keynes economic structure model, taking welfare as basis, we can construct the superior prospect monetary policy rule. Through a substantial evidence research, we can discover that robust superior monetary policy rule means that in the environment indetermination, robust superior monetary policy rule shouldn't be to be getting more careful, but be getting more active.(Bin Liu, 2004,Zhicun Bian and Zheng Guan, 2005,Bin Liu, 2006)。2. the construction of the prospect monetary policy reaction function of our countryFirst, the lag property of monetary policy conduction makes the currency authorities pay more attention to the prospect monetary policy lead that through adding the expectation factor into the traditional Taylor rule model, constructing a prospect monetary policy reaction function can not only make the monetary policy build up a kind of commitment mechanism, but also raise the transparent, credibility and validness of monetary policy. Then, target interest rate is decided by expectation for future inflation rate and future product gap according to available information other than of realized or ex post inflation rate.Secondly, there is a phenomenon that the adjustment of interest rate by currency authorities is smoothing. Clarida, Gali and Gertler(2000) think that (3-3) supposes that the realistic interest rate(actual rate) moves immediately toward to its target level but neglect central bank's will of changing the interest rate smoothly,(3-3) is too strict to describe the realistic variety(actual change) of interest rate, therefore, use (3-4) to describe the smooth behavior of interest rate adjustment.Thirdly, in 1998, our country formally canceled the control of loan scale, and put money supply as the unique intermediate target, which indicate that the importance that money supply gradually becomes the main index sign of the monetary policy raises more high. For the sake of study the performance of money supply as intermediate target in recent years, learning the way of constructing the model from foreign scholars, we bring the growth rate of money supply into the reaction function.3. the analysis of testing result and policy suggestionFrom the examination result, we can discover that the prospect monetary policy reaction function which we construct can nicely describe concrete trend of inter-bank borrowing rate, rate of actual deposit and loan and interest rate spread. In terms of the changes of expected inflation rate, product and the growth rate of money supply, the interest rate adjustment indicate that there is an objective rule. The property of rule shows that there is a rule which is characteristic of monetary policy reaction function in the monetary policy operation, thus this kind of objective reaction function offer to some extent a reference dimensions to measure the degree of tightness.In the meantime, the examination result indicates that the interest rate adjustment towards to expected inflation rate and expected product is all not enough and the monetary policy which makes use of interest rate to control economic movement has inside unsteady.In order to improve Chinese interest rate system, and strengthen the inside stability of monetary policy controlling the economic movement with the usage of interest rate, we put forward the following two policy suggestion.1. The continuously perfect forming mechanism of money market interest rate. Building up a money market working well is vital to perfect formation mechanism of money market interest rate. This request that, on the other hand, we have to strongly develop inter-bank borrowing market, deposit and loan market as well as accept bill market etc. and that raise the connection of each market. On the other hand, we should further perfect the mechanism that central bank guides the change of money market interest rate, and raise the ability of controlling money market by central bank. More concretely, we need to further perfect our country various operation tools by central bank, including savings reserve, rediscount and reloan mechanism and open market operation, in order to regulate money market basic interest rate, guide the total level of the market interest rate. 2. Continue promoting the construction of interest rate market. According to the request of the 16th conference that we should put forward steadily pushing forward construction of interest rate market, and build up sound interest rate decision formation mechanism by market supply and demand, and that the National Central Bank should make use of monetary policy tools to lead market interest rate, on the other hand, we need to manage further interest rate system, quickly reform of marketing mechanism of rate of deposit and loan, build up and improve the mechanism of sound independent risking price decision and control-self by commercial banks. On the other hand, the propulsion of interest-rate-market is decided by the cooperation property of reform at present stage. It has been proved that, high growth rate and low inflation rate we have realized for past eight years, is attributed to the comprehensive effect of such policies as money policy, public finance policy , land and industry etc.Therefore, with continuous promotion of interest rate marketing construction, and improvement of monetary policy system, strengthening other policy system construction, perfecting the coordination mechanism of each other, is advantageous to not only eventually carry out a marketing interest rate, but also ensure that our country economy keep on quickly stable growth and society stability. |
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