The Empirical Research Of Foreign Direct Investment's Impact On Chinese Industrial Structure's Upgrading

Comtemporary world, under the background of economic and life's globization being unceasingly accelerated, in the process of putting opening policy into practice, whether the developping countries could realize the indrstry's adjustment and upgrading or not is one of the critical factors which decides whether they could reach the expecting target.Today, when open degree of economic is higher and higher, the upgrading of a country's industrial structure has already not only depended upon the impetus of internal strength, the exterior factor is also important. In the view of Japanese economic scholar Teretomoo zawa,the upgrading of industrial structure is corresponding to essential factors and technical ability in each stage. Multinational Corporation's direct investment has the possibility to help the host country to establish the cousumable industry which has the competive ability, and reduce the time of the capital production's industral upgrading, thus, becomes auxiliary booster of the industrial structrue's upgrading and opiemizing in host country.Since the reform and openness, foreign capital scale has been expanding unceasingly in China. Especially after Comrade Deng Xiaoping made the talking on south inspecting trip, the scale of foreign direct investments came to a hitherto unknown scale in China. In 1993, foreign deirect investment's amount that our country actually used ranked first in developing countries, and was inferior to US in the world. In 2002 our country's actual absorbting amount of FDI surpassed US for the first time, and became the first one to absorb FDI in the world. After more than 20 years'development, our country has already become one of the most attactive country and the largest foreign capital absorbing country in the world. A great many of foreign investments flooding in has produced gigantic effect on the alteration of our country's industrial structure.At present, our country is entering a new stage of industral adjustment and upgrading. FDI could take the catalysis role of industry strcture's adjustment and upgradement though the effects of capital supplying, conventional industry's competing and optimizing, employment, technology transferring and technology overflowing as well as industrial connection.For the purpose of knowing how FDI plays in the process of our country's industry developing quickly and competition improving unceasingly, how we hoist FDI's industrial upgrading effect though industry's leading and policy's adjustment.This paper analysed FDI's effects in the process of industry structure's upgrading.First, make use of the time series data to build econometrical models, carry out analysis on the impacts of FDI over our country triple industrial structures'alteration.Build up a PDLs model, take FDI as dependent variable, proportions of three industry in GDP as indepepandent variables,and make KOYCK's transfermation. Then carry on ordinary least squares to estimate transfermational model's parameters.After calculating, we obtains: From the results, we could analysist that, the FDI to secondary industry alteration's contribution is largest, tertiary industry takes the second place, the primary industry is the smallest, even negtive effect.Then, make use of gray correlation theoretical to analysis effects of FDI to three industry structures'alteration in each industry. Calculate FDI's industry correlation coefficient previous years in every industry, gets FDI's correlation degree matrix in every industry. Make use of AHP to analyse the matrix data, gets the order of FDI to the three industries'correlation degree in every industry. The conclusions are:the industry which has the largest correlation degree is agriculture,forest, herd and fishery; the second is business , society service industry , education industry and manufacturing industry; the third is retail , hygiene sports and building industry; the forth is electric power , coal gas and water's producing and supplying industry, traffic, post and telecommunications and other industry;the last is excavate industry.Finally, judge the causal relationship between FDI and technological progress.The total amount of FDI adopt really using FDI's amount in our country to represent, take our country's all-personnel labor productivity (OLP) to represent our country's technological level.First, make use of ADF to test stationarity of series FDL and series OLP. After checking, we obtains that second order differences are both stable without exception; then, we use Granger Causal Relationship Test to check them. After checking, we obtains the results that FDI is OLP's causation when deleyed period is 2 to 4, this results also explains that FDI needs at least 2 years deleyed period to make effects to technological progress; in order to test whether FDI and OLP have long-term trace, we use Cointegration Relationship.It shows that there is no mutual growth trend in the long run between FDI and technology progressThrough analysing, we know that FDI has promoted our country's overall technology level,the expanding of FDI's scale is beneficial to our country's technological progress.But, the promot of our country's technological progress is not the reason of FDI's development,there is no long-term progress between them.After all, in the process of our industrial structure's upgrading, FDI improved the proportion of our country's three industries to a certain extent.advanced the altitude of our country's manufacturing industry, promoted technology contents and technology level of our country.Although there also existed many problems when FDI affected the upgrading of our industrial structure,such as, FDI's structural incline enlarged the structural deviation of our country's three industries,restrained the growth of domestic industries,maybe form marketplace monopolizing and technology controling to affect techonology's improvement of our country and so on., we could pass a legal system of foreign capital introduces in time,build the management system according with China's actual conditions , cultivate advantage leading industries, be ready for the protection to nation estate and measure such as supporting a job and boosting the foreign direct investment industrial structures high level-rization , make great efforts to improve unreasonable inclination with investment of structure by foreign merchant, situation forming fine using foreign funds with our country economic growth and industrial restructuring common progress.