Study On The Correlations Between Industrial Structure And Economic Growth Of Jilin Province

How to gain long term economic growth is always a problem that people study on. Under the assumption of competition equilibrium, the traditional theories of economic growth think that economic growth is the result of capital accumulation, increasing of labor, technique progress. But traditional theories of economic growth don't consider the correlation between economic structure (especially industrial structure) and economic growth, which think that for long term, the return of all factors equals to marginal productivity, resource collocation achieves Pareto Optimum, so that the transfer of factors among sectors is of no necessity.Is there any correlation between industrial structure and economic growth? Since 1960's, some economists have studied on it, and suggest that the change of industrial structure is important to economic growth, and further to think that industrial structure is one variable influences on economic growth. For example, Kuznets thinks that the factors influences on economic growth are knowledge stock, improvement of productivity, and the change of economic structure; Pasinetti considers economic growth is the result of increasing the population, technique progress and the change of economic structure. The development of new postwar industrialization nations proves that regulation of the industrial structure is helpful to the economic growth. Since mid 1980's,more and more Chinese economists started to engage study on industrial structure, and most of them proved that regulation of industrial structure can boost the economic growth.First, in chapter1, the introduction part, mainly introduces about the research on this field, among these study literatures, there are two kinds. One is theory analysis, mainly using logic reasoning and criterion study, and the other one is empirical evidence, based on statistical and econometrics method. In the first type, the theory analysis should be demonstrated; and in the second type, the validity of traditional statistical and econometrics method remains consideration. Base on cointegration, VEC and Granger Cause theory, using time series datum from 1978 to 2005, this passage tries to analyze the correlation between industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province. The aim of this passage is to know about the basic introductions of industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province, and then try to analyze the correlation between industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province as well as establishment of their long term equilibrium correlation.In the second chapter, we introduce the general theories on correlation between economic structure (especially industrial structure) and economic growth.The empirical analysis has two parts, one is output elasticity analysis, and the other one is the dynamic correlation analysis of industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province. output elasticity analysis is to analyze the contribution of the three industries to economic growth. From that we can see the tertiary-industry has changed most, so we choose the tertiary-industry as analysis object to carry out dynamic analysis. We select per GDP as the index to denote economic growth, using the tertiary-industry labor ratio and production value ratio as index to denote industrial structure. Using nonstationary time series theory to establish the VEC model, from which we can see long term correlation between industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province. Then we make Granger Cause test to the three variables, and we find that industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province are Granger Cause of each other.Base on theory and empirical analysis above, we give policy suggestion as follow:There is exclusive relationship among industrial structure, employment structure and economic growth of Jilin province, we call it cointegration.There is short term fluctuation and long term equilibrium relationship in the VEC model. The dynamic equilibrium relationship opens out change law between industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province. Because it is a long term trend equation, so we can forecast the changing trend of industrial structure and economic growth.Industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province are Granger Cause of each other, which can give us empirical evidence for industrial structure adjustment and optimization. Based on our practical condition we should carry out the fit industrial structure policy to adjust and optimize industrial structure of Jilin province, so that it can put economy grow fast and healthy. In the other hand, with the growth of economy, it can impel industrial structure adjustment and optimization, which will form a benign circulation.The contribution of this passage is that it establishes the VEC model of industrial structure and economic growth of Jilin province, and open out the long term dynamic equilibrium relationship of them, which give us empirical evidence for industrial structure adjustment and optimization of Jilin province.