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Research On Calculation Methods Of Parameters Used In Real Options Valuation Of The High-tech Project

Posted on:2008-03-05Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C H FengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360215953184Subject:Technical Economics and Management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The venture capital area is a hot spot field of enterprise valuation application. Along with the development of science and technology which changes with each new day, more and more high-tech enterprises and start-ups projects have been founded. How effectively to value the venture capital project always is a difficult problem. In the real practice, the venture capital companies are more adopting the discounted cash flow valuation method and the relative comparison valuation method to get the value of the high-tech project value, then make the decision to withdraw immediately from the project or continue to invest. This kind of traditional enterprise value valuation method cannot satisfy the needs for highly flexibility of the high-tech enterprise and intangible asset appraisal. Therefore, we need to seek a new valuation method that can handle high tech enterprise's characteristics, in order to accurately show the value of the high-tech enterprise.According to the characteristics of the high-tech enterprises, real options valuation method adopts the input value and concepts in financial market to price companies. If we didn't consider the value leakage, we may directly use the black-scholes model to fix the price of real assets. But along with the development of real options theory and the practice application, the key questions come out. Whether the financial formula could directly be applied into real field and whether the meaning does not change, and how to reasonable calculate the parameter, namely how effectively to determine the value of the parameter. This question includes following three aspects:(1)Questions exist when the financial option formula is applied to the real field, including whether formula needs to be changed. Practical meaning and methods of the commonly core parameter coming from the black-scholes formula and binary trees model.(2)Take the actual project investigation and you will find different project and industry has different parameter decision method. For example, in the petroleum industry, petroleum price, the mining cost could give the basic rule according to the historical data, but regarding certain very strong innovation products, obtaining the historical data appears quite difficult. When you face such situation, you should take a listed company by analgy.Then, you will get enough data to calculate the parameter. The research on the core parameter in the real field and their applicability has important influence on the project valuation and high-tech enterprise valuation.(3)Influence research on different choice of the project core parameter. In view of different choice of the parameter resulting different influence, we may aim at the concrete project to conduct the influence research. Each project all has certain parameters whose choices are more important.At present, domestic more directs application of the black-scholes formula, parameters'meaning certainly are not specifically excavated. In addition, the parameter methods have not been formed system. Therefore, such a research has the vital significance regarding the formula in the practical application. This article first through a series of theories and the actual case research regarding the domestic and foreign enterprises value valuation, project valuation, company merging, summarizes the methods used for determining value of the parameter and studies methods and its applicability when its parameter must be decided to give a value, after understanding the practical problems which exist when the finance price formula is used in the real option value computation process.Based on universal research on the methods of the parameters, this article selects a practical case to carry on real options used in the actual project application research. Part and parcel of our work is Reasonable selecting the method of the parameter and correctly understanding the parameter in real field. The case has carried on the actual investigation and study regarding the project basic situation, gains the massive data, after analyzing the domestic and foreign markets, proposes some possible decisions-making when facing uncertainty in the future. Based on contingency decision-making, we have analyzed the type and Profit and loss condition of real options which the project holds and problems when you calculate the value of the parameter in the project. Finally, we hold a sole real options, namely growth option, to carry on the research on methods of the parameter and studies actual problems and propose our ponder, when we determine value of the parameter. In the end of this article, we make the decision of the methods, actually calculate the growth option value, and carry on the influence analysis of method choice to real options value. This part of computation also shows reasonable selection of parameter has important influence on the computed result. This also finally affects the enterprise value computation and the final investment decision-making.Finally,this paper expounds the conclusions and future vision for the application of real options methods. As a evaluation methods,real options have been widely used in a variety of entity investment field, especially has the extremely widespread application prospect in particular in the venture capital field. How to weigh the value of an enterprise and how effectively to use the formula of option value to calculate which is quantitative, are all key questions in the investment decision-making process. Reasonable selecting the method of the parameter and correctly understanding the parameter in real field are all the core questions which affect the investment decision-making. Simultaneously the data which are used to calculate those parameters originate mostly from the financial market; therefore the developed degree of the financial capital market also affects the breadth and depth of real options application. Along with unceasing development of the stock market in our country and vigorous development of the high-tech industry, Thoughts of the real options surely strikes root in the hearts of the people and its fundamental research will be also reach more advance. As a theory of real options which is unceasingly development, it also will develop along with the Chinese economy rapid development...
Keywords/Search Tags:High-tech project, real options, value evaluation, Parameter calculation
PDF Full Text Request
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