Study On Discounted Cash Flow Analysis In The Evaluation Of Urban Land Price

In the process of the gradually consummating of the market economy system and the capital market , the theory and the method of the land value evaluation have become the hot topic which people pay attention to day by day. In the appraisal theory, the appraisal method and the establishment of target system . our country basically was the model or continued to use newest achievements of the developed country, the beginning has been high, but our country land market opened late, competed not fully, the land market growth was not mature. Although theoretically the more scientific discounted cash flow analysis is the Western appraisal profession utilization mainstream method, but as a result of its uncertainty parameter choice and particularity of our country land market, regarding the research of using discounted cash flow analysis to appraise the land value evaluation is relatively weak, this method have not enter the true application stage in our country.This thesis lays stress on the theoretical research, and regards instance as the evidence. On the basic of the land value evaluation classical theory, analysis and exhaustive description to the development history, estimate principle and estimate method of yield capitalization, pay great attention to the applicable scope, the characteristics as well as the difference and the relation of two method of yield capitalization , these are direct capitalization and yield capitalization(DCF analysis), propose utilize the DCF analysis in the land value evaluation,and exhaustively analysis how to use the DCF analysis to appraisal the land value. Firstly, from the change of the DCF analysis , infers 13 kinds of formulas of the DCF analysis , unifies the actual situation of our country land market, analysis the principle of the DCF analysis , and discuss two questions which should be pay attention to in the appraisal land value to use the DCF analysis, the two questions are determination of the discounted cash flow and the discount rate. Then the writer makes the essence to the discounted cash flow, discusses the pattern of the discount cash flow as well as the forecast method, and defines the essence of the discount rate from the respects of its use value and practice signification, and pays attention to analyzing four methods to determination the discounted cash flow from the reckoning method, the good and bad points, the applicable scope and the improvement method.Finally, the writer on the basis of the theories of the DCF analysis principle, pattern of the discount cash flow , and determination the discounted rate, taking the land of Yangzhou city for example, uses the DCF analysis to appraise of the land, by the time to using the DCF analysis to appraise of cities land from now has the further research with help.