The Empirical Study Of Relationship Between The Development Of Consumer Credit And The Growth Of Economy

Consumer credit is a powerful implement which will activate consumption and promote the economic growth. Since 1998 the year when PBC promulgated "The Management of Personal Tenement Credit" consumer credit has developed a lot in China. Till the end of 2006, the total balance of consumer credit has come up to 2404.6 billion yuan, among which the balance of personal tenement's credit, 1985.7 billion yuan,accounts for 82.6%. The development of consumer credit can raise the resource of economic activity and improve the civil economic; can realize the demand of the lower earnings ahead ,enhance their standard of living, cultivate civil conception of credit, improve the development of finance, and aggrandize the transfer function of finance in the social resource collocation as well. After 10 years, could consumer credit realize its original intention? Could it improve economy? How powerful is it to promote the growth of economy? What's the relationship between the promotion of consumer credit and the growth of economy in our country?Basing on basic theory, this thesis first analyzes the relationship between consumption and economic growth, expatiates respectively on Marxian consume theory, Keynesianism and Marshall Theory of Consumer and educes the economic significance of developing consumer credit. Then, this thesis analyzes the birth and the effect of consumer credit from the aspect of demand and supply. This thesis also summarizes the situation of consumer credit and its shortage in our country at present. The analysis shows an unreasonable economic growing structure in our country which is getting worse. In recent years, consumer credit develops fast, but it still can't catch up the speed of economic development. Consumer credit takes quite a small proportion in the whole civil economy, and its scale doesn't match the scale of the whole civil economy.Finally, an econometric analyzing model VAR is imported. Based on the financial statistical data from 2000 to 2006, taking GDP, the balance of consumer credit, the governable income in towns and cities and the total sale of real estate as variables, an error correction model is established based on VAR system. We continue to analyze the relation between the development of consumer credit and the growth of economy with impulse response functions and Variance decomposition methods. Through these econometric analyses, the econometric relationship between the development of consumer credit and the growth of economy is achieved.