Study On The Relationship Between International Trourism And Economic Growth In China

Since 1978, Chinese Inbound tourism has kept a steadily fastdevelopment trend and has made enormous contribution to the foreignexchange revenue and the balance of payments of our courtry, has had thepositive influence on the Chinese economy development. At the end of 1998,the Chinese government by the new stage characteristic of the social.economy, listed the tourism as the new economical important growth spot,has formed the big atmosphere which the impetus tourism development,the tourism also become the important industry from the general industry.Cointegration analysis has become a standard tool in econometricsduring the last two decades after its introduction by Granger (1981) andEngle & Granger (1987). Probabilistic methods, mathematical statisticalmethods and dynamic model specialized methods is subtly mixed incointegration modeling theory and the economy construction modeldescribing unknowable data generation process(DGP) is built, so theeconomic system inner law can be illustrated more effectively andaccurately by time series modeling.This dissertation summarized the research work in the following fiveparts. The first part reviews, mainly introduc a topic the background and thesignificance of this article, the domestic and foreign research situationat present, as well as Chinese some limits of inbound tourism.In the second part, we introduce simply development course aboutinbound tourism since The republic of China has been established, and itsimportant function to the national economy.The third part introduce the related theory and method, that is the stabilitytest of time series, cointegration test, Granger causality test, Errorcorrection model and so on, provides the theory and the method for the nextreal diagnosis question.The fourth part is an empirical analysis: we select datas of thenumber of International, Tourists Arrival to China and the IntertionalTourism Foreign Exchange Earnings, the research show the three time series are are all non-stationary in the sample sector (1981-2005), and theyare unit root process. And then cointegration test show that there is onlyone cointegration relationship between the economic growth and thenumber of International Tourists Arrival to China, between the economicgrowth and the Intertional Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings. And wecarrry on Granger causality test, finally give the correspondingError correction model (ECM), the results show that the Chinese economygrowth is the important reason of the inbound tourism development, theyhave the unidirectional Granger causality.At last, based on empirical analysis, we give some conclusions, andproduces some constructive suggestion.