The Research On The Existence Of China's Stock Market Bubbles

The stock market bubble in the stock market as a standard financial theory is inconsistent in the world, it has seriously disturbed the normal operation of the financial and economic system. It has been aroused concern in the academia and the real sector. At present, the problems of China's stock market bubble is that in reference to foreign rational bubble theory test China's stock market bubble of reality, beyond rational expectations theory of the stock market bubble of the reasons for more explanation. When referring to foreign non-rational theory of the stock market bubble of the stock market bubble in China a reason to make a better explanation, can not use non-rational bubble on the bubble right for the existence of a more objective empirical testing.To solve the problem, this paper studies the rational expectations assumptions of the theory of rational stock market bubble and investor psychology and behavior based on non-rational stock market bubble. In comparing the two theories, found the rational expectations within the intrinsic bubble and non-rational understanding on the bubble of the stock market bubble is in common: First, they recognize the stock market bubble from the stock market is the basis of value; Secondly, excessive reaction is the major reason of stock market bubble. Thus, the use of intrinsic bubble to explore the existence of stock market bubble can be rational bubble on the bubble test method and the non-rational on the bubble explain better together. With the reality of our country, within the intrinsic bubble direct test of China's stock market bubble existence of the test, to make stock market bubble testing and interpretation of the causes of uniformity.Positive test results were as follows: First, there are three bubble periods in recent 10 years in China stock market. Secondly, from the view of psychology and behavior of the investor, it shows China's stock market bubble are the investors'over-reacted and the positive strategies. Finally, the fourth period of the stock market bubble is forming. The results confirm our stock market bubble of existence, and given a reasonable interpretation of the causes of the bubble, and pointing out the risks on the recent stock market bubble formation and expansion .