An Empirical Research On The Influential Elements Of Hunan Province's Export Trade

The paper begins from the macroscopic performance of Hunan Province export trade, especially makes a general analysis to Hunan Province's export trade changed situation separately from some aspects such as trade total quantity, trade structure and trade way etc. And then makes a theoretical analysis to the influence factor of Hunan Province export trade from the international aspect, the domestic aspect and the uncertainty aspect.After analyzing in the theory, we begin to study developing conditions and its' relevant factors of Hunan province's export. At first, it does the empirical analysis on relevant factors of Hunan province's export by using the econometric methods such as co-integration and vector auto regression on the 1985-2005 data. The empirical analysis results show that there are long term co-integration relations among the export, gross domestic production (GDP), import (IM), investment in research and development (R&D) and foreign direct investment (FDI) of Hunan province. The determinants of Hunan province's export are the following main factors including IM, and GDP. The FDI and R&D have affect on the developing of export in the opposite direction. The real efficient exchange rate of RMB, the world economic growth rate, and the world export price index have no clear relations with the export. To this phenomenon, this paper gives some reasonable economic explanations.Finally this paper raises some basic policy proposals for inducing higher and healthier exports on the macroscopic ,intermediate and microcosmic levels.