The Strategy Analysis Of Stock Index Short-term Investment Based On Survival Variable

In the face of the course of economic internationalization improved rapidly after the entrance into WTO in China, the speed of opening financial market quicken, the demand for"standardization,marketing and internationalization"in Chinese financial market being stringent. As the ending of the reform of share discrimination coming, the period of the"all-liquid share"is about to coming in China. Additionally, as the appearance of the 300 index in shang hai and shen zhen document stock index futures, the stock index has broken through 4000, which has implied that Chinese stock market is coming into a thriving period. Thus, it can be seen that the mainland stock market has been in the phase of needing risk management and instructing investments rationally. Therefore, researching the investors'rational and healthy invest is helpful for avoiding systemic risk, enhance the investors'confidence, stabilizing market anticipation and perfecting the whole market actively.From the return on the indices of the stock shares and the number of days, this paper will begin with the invest theory, based on market timing theory, using the survival model, and masters the rule of the sequential rises and falls, which is valuable for board invest. The paper uses the theory analysis and empirical analysis together. As for stock invest, empirical analysis adopts the common rules that the board invest analysis follow. To begin with, from the view of the macroscopical economic, the paper compares the survival characteristics between the industry, analyze the internal changing rule of industry and discover the most potential industry cluster to be invested. And then, the paper, based on the status of the economic development and the influence on stock market, analyzes the survival characteristics of the whole stock trend systemically, and research the rule of the sequential rises and falls in China. In the end, the paper calculates the conditioned probability of the sequential rises and falls and the federal probability of the return and the number of days, and put forwards the invest strategies of the stock index and financial derivative accordingly.