| Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has gotten rapid development, the public finance income has increased quickly, macrocosmic adjustment function of the public finance has strengthened continuously. However, the various fiscal risks have appeared gradually. Although fiscal crisis has not broken out yet, fiscal risks are getting more and more expansile. The detectability and early-warning of fiscal risks are imperative. More government officials and scholars are starting paying attention to the research on early-warning of fiscal risks. Scholars no matter domestic and overseas are also trying to establish the models of fiscal risks'early-warning system (EWS).This article builds up EWS of fiscal risks, which includes direct explicit risk, contingent explicit risk, direct implicit risk and contingent implicit risk, based on the existing research results and principles of statistic index system. It uses mapping method to turn the primitive indicators into interval indicators. Then, it uses AHP (analytic hierarchy process) to determine the weights of various risks. The theoretical model of fiscal risk EWS is constructed.This article calculates the risk scores of the whole system and each subsystem, according to the standardization of scores which represent the risk degree of original indexes. Then, predicts the future fiscal risk. Meanwhile, proposes a thought that the transfer probability of fiscal risks can be calculated by building a Markov chain model.The main conclusions were listed below. From the view of fluctuation, direct implicit risk has a obvious fluctuation, other risks have small fluctuation. From the view of increasing trend, contingent explicit risk has a increased trend, other risks are in the light-alarm status, or middle-alarm status sometimes. From the view of fiscal risks control, contingent explicit risk is hard to control. It can be controlled and early warned by perfecting the fiscal management system and standardizing economic environment. |
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