An Empirical Analysis Of Industrial Effects Of Monetary Policy Which Depends On China Monetary Policy

It has been considered as one of the very important problems in the money andfinance theory all the time whether the monetary policy is effective or not, and theindustrial effect of Chinese monetary policy? This paper document is an empiricalanalysis on the industrial effects of Chinese monetary policy based on industry.Since 1993, the control model of the monetary policy of our country has begun to gothrough transition from direct control to indirect control. During this period, theCentral Bank frequently implements the monetary policy tool to adjust and controlthe macro economy, but effect of the monetary policy which has made is acontroversial topic. The effect is the macroscopically effect based on the responseand transmission mechanism of money policy. So analyses the industrial effect ofChinese monetary policy is the star of analysis the effects of Chinese monetarypolicy and this paper. On the basis of what have got on the measurement of monetarypolicy, this dissertation uses the econometrics approaches to quantify the industrialeffects of Chinese monetary policy.This paper figures that the growth of the industries is from the result of takingmoney policy, but the effect is not very evidence. Interest rate and loan is not themain cause of the growth of industries. Money supply can exert an influence onindustries, but the effect result is different. Then I analyses the effect of industriesafter giving a unit interest rate, loan, money supply standard error shock to industries,and giant different result.This thesis is divided into five chapters:Chapter One: General introduction. Chapter one mainly introduces thebackground of selecting title and significance of the study in China; I review andcomment briefly the literatures on the effect of the monetary policy and industrialeffect of Chinese monetary policy which scholar has published.Chapter Two: Summarize the definition of the effect of the monetary policy andindustrial effect of Chinese monetary policy, transmission mechanism of industrialeffects of Chinese monetary policy, tools selecting under the difference of industries. Chapter Three: I review economic background and the performance of themonetary policy in china since 90s, and then comment briefly the effect of moneypolicy.Chapter Four: this chapter is the most important chapter. In this chapterⅠgive anempirical test to the industrial effect of the monetary policy of China. According toeconomic quarterly data of 2000 to 2006 and monthly date of Jun. 2000 to Dec2006. First introduce some econometrics models, such as vector Auto Regression(VAR) model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. And somemethods of date analysis: Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality.Second, I process econometrics analysis between policy tools (money supply, loan,interest rate) and Macroeconomic index such as the first industry, the second industry,the third industry to study the effect of China's industrial monetary policy which isbased on Eviews5.1 in order to provide reference to the policy-making. I give theVAR equation and estimate its coefficient, give IRF and Variance Decompositiongraph.Chapter Five: On the basis of the above research, I analyses the reason of feebleindustry effect of Chinese money policy, and put forward relevant policycountermeasure.