A Research On The Cash Dividend Policy Of China's Listed Companies: Based On Signaling Theories

In the western mature capital market, the change of cash dividend policy signals very strong information to investors from the managing group of the listed companies. However, having the dual characteristics of emerging and switching, in China's capital market, the cash dividend policy appears many different phenomena. Based on this, this thesis chooses this topic to conduct the research, attempts to elaborate the dividend policies of China's listed companies, and analyses the signaling effect of cash dividend policy to the future performance of listed companies.This thesis firstly elaborates the history of signaling theories, its modeling researches and foreign and domestic empirical researches. When studying the signaling effect of Chinese listed companies' cash dividend policy, this thesis uses mono-factor regression method and multi-factor regression method, and the results have been verified. Last, the thesis draws conclusions and comes up with relative policy suggestions.The main conclusions are: first, the proportion of listed companies with cash dividend is growing since year 2001; second, the relative figure of the changes of this year's cash dividend has a remarkably negative relationship with that of next year's EPS; third, the relative figure of the changes of this year's cash dividend has not got a remarkably positive relationship with the change of next year's the year's DROE; fourth, the relative figure of the changes of this year's cash dividend has a remarkably positive relationship with that of next year's P/E ratio; fifth, the relative figure of the changes of this year's cash dividend has not got a remarkably positive relationship with that of next year's BPS; sixth, the relative figure of the changes of this year's cash dividend has a remarkably positive relationship with the next year's change of DROE and that of next year's BPS.