An Empirical Study On The "Roller Coaster" Phenomenon In Commodities Future Markets

In recent years, the frequently-appeared pricing"Roller Coaster"phenomenon in future markets of some commodities such as the nonferrous metals and energies has attracted the attention of the media and even been reported in the newspaper. However, there is no published literature on this phenomenon. The deep exploration of this phenomenon is of great help not only for China's enterprises to avoid the greater risks of price exposure due to economic globalization, but also for the market participants to free themselves from more risks of future transaction.The present researcher holds that financial features, market gambling and disposition effect are the three fundamental, technological and psychological factors and causes. Therefore, the present researcher, from the respects of macro-finance, behavioral finance and gambling model, combining the practice of future transaction, carries out an empirical study on the"Roller Coaster"phenomenon in future markets, resulted from the financial features of the commodities futures, the"disposition effect"in future markets and the two gambling behaviors such as"hitchhiking"and"bull-killing-bull"as well. Thus, the article provides a full explanation for the abnormal phenomenon of the intense pricing"Roller Coaster"in recent years.