Empirical Research On Real Estate Investment Risk Management

Along with the real estate developing quickly, it is playing a more and more important role in the national economy development. And as a result of the real estate's some characteristics: the investment cycle is long, the investment cost is big and couldn't transportability and so on, so it has to face the extremely complex risk factors. And the investors have to face the question of dispersing the risk.The investment portfolio optimization theory brought the hope for the real estate investor, this article elaborated the development of the investment portfolio theory in detail, as well as in the real estate investment risk's application, then established the corresponding model. This article is divided into five parts.The 1st chapter is the introduction, discussed the real estate development present situation and the existence questions, and then elaborated this article's content and research method.The 2nd chapter is the real estate investment risk analysis, In this part analyzed the real estate investment risk, and put the primary factors to carry on the analysis, At last, found out the interest rate and the national policy change are the main risk factors that affect the real estate investment.The 3rd chapter is the real estate investment portfolio theory and it's model, introduced the investment portfolio theory's development and established the corresponding models---the "Average value --- variance " model, the CAPM model and the APT model. Then discussed the real estate investment portfolio, and introduced two ways to disperse the real estate investment risk. Finally established three models of the real estate investment portfolio.The 4th chapter is the empirical research on investment risk management of real estate investment's combination, at first discussed the description statistics of the real estate investment's income rate, discovered may use the variance to measure the risk. Moreover according to the real estate investment portfolio's definition, analyzed between the properties of the real estate whether have the relevance or not, discovered among those properties, some have the weak relevance, Finally use those properties that have weak relevance made a combination to manage investment risk, and established the "average value---variance" model, found out the superior combination through the Excel plan solution---obtained the smallest risk combination when the income is certain, then gave a comparison---the superior combination's achievement and the similar variety's combination of the same power, discovered the superior combination's income and risk, all surpasses the other combination's income and risk, and the superior combination's Sharp estimates target is also bigger than the other combination's Sharp estimates target.The 5th chapter is the conclusion, the suggestion and the forecast, according to the frontier chapters's analysis, explained the practical summary of the investment portfolio theory in the real estate investment, and proposed the corresponding suggestions and the future research's direction and forecast.