The Study On The Correlation Among Stock Market, Credit Market And Economic Growth

The paper begin with the basis of precursor's research achievement about the theory of stock market,Credit Market and economic growth, carries out theoretical analysis for the mechanism of the stock market's effect on economic growth, priority analyses the channel of the stock market and Credit Market stimulating economic growth and the function of the stock market and Credit Market,then the effect on long range economic growth mechanism. Linking the situation of our country's stock market, Credit Market and economic growth,We carried out the empirical analysis on the relation among our country's stock market , Credit Market and economic growth, judging whether or not existing correlativity , causal relationship , long range stabilization in them, how the index make contribution to economy development. In these basis we put forward the existing problems among the stock market,Credit Market and economic growth. Then we provided some suggestion that the financial market and economic growth developing harmoniously.This article is synthesized to the index system that have thought about stock market flowability , stock market fluctuation , stock market earning ratio , stock market scale and efficiency , Credit Market development scale and efficiency , economic growth , the degree of economy opening to the outside world etc. We construct a VAR model to carry out Granger cause and effect analysis , Johansen co-integration test and RESET.Under the situation of controlling stock market flowability and fluctuation, we apply the time series analysis method to carry out the binary cause and effect and muti-cointegration analysis on the relation among our country stock market, credit marketplace and economic growth from 1993 to 2007. The result indicates a notable causal relationship between the credit marketplace and economic growth, besides economic growth and the credit marketplace have promoted each other. But, stock market development and stock market flowability not having any causal relationship equally with economic growth.Under thinking the condition that the Credit Market development,stock market development having negative effect to economic growth.The other way round, the stock market fluctuation have the notable two-way causal relationship with economic growth and the credit marketplace development, and the relationship is negative. These testing results indicate the excessive fluctuation in stock market have negative effect on overall economic growth and the Credit Market.