A Study On The Estimation Of Consumptive Credit Risk In China

With the continuative development of economy and standard of living in China, credit consumption enters our life gradually. To satisfy people's increasing demand for credit consumption, the commercial banks present all kinds of credit consumption products. The developed countries' practice indicates that there is extremely close relationship between the scale of credit transaction and the average GDP. The more developed a country's economy is, the higher the credit degree, then the power promoting economy development is stronger. They promote each other mutually. Through the development of the last few years, consumptive credit loan has already become the new profit growth point of commercial banks. But, along with the extension of the consumptive credit loan business scale continuously, the credit risk existing in the credit consumption exposes out gradually, and the loan default also bring great loss to commercial banks. The credit business in abroad has developed maturely, and the consumption credit estimation system also become perfect gradually. But in China, people's credit consciousness is weak, the estimation system does not build up completely, and we lack the advanced valid estimating method and consummate credit system. All of these problems lead to the credit risk existing in the commercial banks' business can not be distinguished and be controlled effectively. At present, it's urgent to produce a set of consumptive credit risk estimating method which is suitable for the situation of our country.The characteristic of consumptive credit loan, consumptive credit risk and the theory and method for estimating the credit risk are summed up sufficiently in this paper. On this basis, the essence of the credit risk estimation is studied, and several problems in our credit risk estimation practice are found out. Paying great attention to these problems, referring to the advanced experience in consumptive credit risk estimation at home and abroad, according to the situation of our country and aiming to apply, author of this paper chooses out a series of index at natural condition , profession condition and credit condition. Then, the credit rating standard is set down. By comparing and anglicizing various statistical methods, principal components analysis is chosen to decide the index coefficient, and subsequently, the model to estimate the consumption credit risk in our country is built up. Because it is difficult to receive systemic and rich data, the data used in this paper is received by investigation. As follows, the classify analysis is used to set down the standard to rate credit rank, and the general estimating result is worked out. Finally, the result is checked up to testify that the model is rational and applicable.