An Empirical Study On Financial Crisis Prediction Of Listed Corporations Include Intellectual Capital Variables

Financial crisis is a cosmopolitan problem. Since 1960s, studies on corporate failure prediction have prevailed both in the U.S.A and in European countries and some researches on this subject have been conducted in our country in these years. Most of prior research has been concerned with the establishment of corporate failure prediction models based on only financial ratios. This paper makes use of the financial statements of listed companies in China Stock Exchange and builds a successful model for corporate failure discrimination with logistic method. Based on financial factors the researchers add some variables into the model which includes factors of corporate governance and intellectual capital.Firstly, this paper discuss the concept of financial crisis, than it review the important literature on financial crisis from domestic and abroad papers, and introduce some innovations and development trend in predict methodology with non-financial variables over the past two decades especially. By the way, it discusses the main progress in this study. Secondly, the paper introduce how the researchers add variables of corporate governance and corporate governance into the prediction model, and then introduce how they design the study. The paper also put detailed description on sample selection and data source. At last, they do the empirical study and summarize the results. In addition the paper summarizes the shortcomings of our study and suggests the future study.The research demonstrates that the financial crisis warning model not only with financial factors but also equity structure factors could improve the predicting ability, the stability of modes is fine and the model are both effective and practical. The predicting accuracies of 3 models are 95%, 90% and 75%.