The Risk Analysis And Control From Finance Lease Of Aircraft Of China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd

Along with the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, China Southern Airlines will import a great number of aircrafts by the way of finance lease in the coming years. However, when Southern Airlines benefits from the aircraft leasing, it also has a significant financing risks, resulting funds could not function effectively, or even faces the business and financial crisis, then makes the company going into the brink of bankruptcy. Therefore, China Southern Airlines' risk management for aircraft leasing has a very important practical significance to prevent the financing risk.This paper is divided into four chapters. Chapter one introduction. Proposing the risk management of aircraft finance leasing has theoretical and practical significance, analysising the existing study at home and abroad, proposing the research ideas and methods of this paper. Chapter two is the introduction to the aircraft leasing business of China Southern Airlines, mainly about the comparison of the ways and risk of aircraft financing. Chapter three, analysis the risk causes of aircraft leasing in China Southern Airlines, mainly on the market risk, currency risk and interest rate risk. Chapter four, stating the countermeasures to risk, focusing on the passengers transport volume prediction model and the application of Convexity mode in analysising the aircraft leasing risk. Chapter five summarizes the research results and innovations of this paper.In this paper, China southern airlines aircraft finance lease of risk management, including two key points. First, according to the implementation of the international network of China Southern Airlines, it uses the passengers transport volume prediction model to forecast the passenger traffic growth in the next years, and makes it as an important basis for fleet expansion. Second, based on the Convexity mode, taking scientific measurement and process the interest rate risk of China Southern Airlines, then gives quantitative evaluation results.Innovations of this paper is, the first is that basing on the implementation of the international network of China Southern Airlines, it uses the passengers transport volume prediction model to forecast the passenger traffic growth in the next years, as the basis for the establishment of fleet-scale development plan, resolves the problem that the existing number of teams in the development of the economy only through the form subjective judgment to estimate the size of the fleet. The second is to use paper goods on the market, the cost of the trading range lock on the China Southern Airlines international routes to hedge jet fuel consumption. In this way, China Southern Airlines could lock the future price of jet fuel range very well and without interference, China Southern Airlines to reduce the existing policy of floating oil prices brought about by the risks and looses. The third is that it uses the Convexity mode to measurement and process the interest rate risk of China Southern Airlines, and according to the size of the risk, and then gives quantitative evaluation results. Through purchasing equivalent bonds to circumvent interest rate risks, solves the problem when interest rate fluctuates largely, the accuracy of renewal analysis reduced greatly, gives the more scientific and rational decision-making methods to circumvent interest rate risks.