Safe Stock Forecast And Appraise Based On The Nerve Method And The Data Envelopment Analysis Method

Since humanity's civilization, the logistics activities already exist in the society, but have not been valued. Until 20th century, the logistics becomes the object gradually which the people studies, mainly because countries to countries'exchange is more and more frequent, the logistic cost rise quickly, the people pay the attention to shift to this domain. Following the computer information network technology and the economical fast development, logistic not only become the key to affect the manage efficiency of the enterprise; also becomes one of important industrial which affects state economy development. But the reduction logistic cost becomes the reason of logistics research existence. In logistic cost, stock cost occupied the major part. That because regardless of raw material purchase, product production processing, packing, transportation, loading and unloading and deliver all need to keep in stock adjusts, therefore can involve the stock cost.But has the stock which too many does not need, can bring the extra stocks cost, therefore, keeps in stock in the control and provides good customer service two aspects to have to maintenance abalance, therefore must forecast and control the stock.The goal of stock establishment is for satisfy the production need, satisfy market demand and adjustment entire logistic process.It includes many parts. An important part is the safe stock(called cushion stock), it is the cushion stock which sets up except the basic stock outside, is for prevent and reduce many uncertainy elements (delivering postpone) to creat bad effection. In the existing research, forecast method of safe stock already had many quotamethod. Along with the computer technology fast development, forecast method with the computer technology also get more and more value, it let the people be separated from the tedious computation, also the precision is higher.This article takes an automobile spare parts manufacturer enterprise'logistics department as an example, it manages and controls automobile spare parts stock,this article takes automobile bearing'stock as the research object,then uses the artificial nerve network principle, forecasts their safe stock with the computer simulation. And uses the DEA method to analyze stock control achievements in different time of a year about an enterprise.And according to the question which exists proposed in the stock system exists improvement direction. The article will obtain the conclusion which could be the reference for enterprise's decision-making finally, will form an information management system to forecast safe stock and appraise achievements; those will actual use in actual operation.