The Research On Financial Distress Prediction Index System And Models Of Chinese Listed Manufacturing Industry Companies

The research on financial distress prediction has been widely concerned and studied in the developed countries especially in the one with mature capital market, and nowadays, in China , more attentions are given to this sphere , so it has very important theory significance. With the background that China joined WTO, China faces to the intense competition at home and abroad , the accelerating development of Chinese capital market and the deepening reform of economic system ,this research also has important realistic significance.Basing on the research situation and the research tendency at present, this thesis mainly emphasizes two aspects: setting up a scientific and reasonable prediction index system and establishing a prediction model of Chinese listed manufacturing industry companies. More especially ,this thesis ,firstly, selects 32 Chinese listed manufacturing industry companies as research samples, which consists of the same number of "special treated" and "non-special treated" corporations in 2006,.and selects another 36 corporations as testing samples. Secondly, build a prediction index system by quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, thirdly construct three kinds of financial distress models-fisher's linear discriminant function, Logistic regression model and BP neural network model. finally, get a conclusion ,by comparing the three models, that BP neural network model is the best. It will contribute to the finance prediction theory, investment and management.