The Research On Influence Of Housing Price's Fluctuation On Household Savings

Under the social background of house price rising continually, sluggish domestic demand and high household savings in our country, this thesis studies how housing price fluctuation affect household saving behaviors in the period of transitional economy from theory and empirical examination, with attempt to rationally explain the phenomenon of high house price, high savings and low consumption in China.On the basis of describe previous empirical work home and abroad, this thesis constructs inherent links between housing price fluctuation and household savings from five parts which are saving theories, excluding effects, credit policy, systems change and traditional culture and customs in China. The analysis suggests that there are excluding effects exiting between house price and savings, and credit policy, house reforms and traditional culture promote household savings. Considering the dual characteristic of consumption and investment of home, the analysis with "Consumption-Investment Demand" Model and "User Cost" Model find that savings is affected by the force balance of housing consumption demand and investment demand, the compare of the using cost and renting cost affect savings through impacting household's purchase wishes.In order to more clearly understand effects of different crowds' house—savings behaviors on total savings, the overall subjects is divided into three parts according to different homeownership, exploring different conduction channels of house price fluctuations impact on different parts' saving behaviors. The findings suggest that home owner will decrease their savings when house price appreciation, mainly through wealth effects and investment demand channels, the effect of increased house price on renter's saving is uncertainty and more complex, and to homeownership on tenure transition, house price increasing will lead to tight monetary policy, which decrease the savings. Therefore, the effect of house price fluctuations on total savings is uncertainty. We use aggregate data to examine the relations between house price fluctuations and household savings. The empirical analysis suggests that house price increasing stimulates household precautionary saving and boom in stock market reduce household savings.For promoting healthy development of house price fluctuations and savings, learning the experience of western countries, we need to control housing market to lead household savings and promote consumption from guiding housing demand, improve the supply structure, deepening housing finance and improving housing security regulations.