An Analysis On The Applicable Scope Of Three Rational Evaluation Indices About International Competitive Power

With the world's access to an era of rapid industry development,many countries such as England,Germany,the United States and Japan etc.once led the world's economy.However,one country's powerful economy is not accomplished in an action but through a long process instead.In this process,the after countries advance in one or some certain industries first,and then others follow the same way.They finally become developed countries,such as England,the United States,Japan and so on.Do these national industries have potential performance when they acquire or lose industry superiority? How to reflect the superiority and inferiority of certain industries in one country? So it needs a scientific system to estimate the industry.Usually,international competitiveness is used to reflect its superiority and inferiority.That is to say,a country's industry can obtain its international status through comparative analysis of its international competitiveness,which provides reference for making industry policies.Currently,three rational indices are commonly used domestically.They are international export market occupancy,apparent comparative advantage index and net export occupancy index.The first two is calculated by using export data,while the last by both the export and import data.This bias results in vast gaps in analyzing international competitiveness.This paper selected goods trade data and service trade data from nearly 29 countries and regions from 1992 to 2006.It points that the three indices are different not only on analyzing goods and service data,but also very different in analyzing the same data.Firstly,the international export market occupancy reflects a country's(or region's) international market share.From this point of view,indeed,it is a relatively good evaluation index to estimate international competitiveness.However,it may overestimate international competitiveness when a country's(or region's)export is very developed.Secondly,though net export ratio index overcomes some shortcomings of international export market occupancy by import and export data,it can underestimate countries with bigger import and export trade,and overestimate some small countries. Finally,the third index uses ratio of a certain industry(products)in the country's export share to the world's level.It is more scientific and persuasive than the first two.But its estimation method can easily cause serious overestimation of developing countries(or even those small non-developing countries)in exporting a particular product.As to the characteristics and possible problems about the above three indices,this research carries out a detailed description,and especially analyzes the problems that may emerge during usage.This paper proposes some suggestions:these three indices can evaluate relatively scientific international competitiveness,but they are not perfect enough.Specific analysis should be made according to different circumstances.It is better to use them comprehensively,compare their results carefully.Only in this way can accurate international competitiveness be shown.