Research On Financial Crisis Warning Based On RS And Markov Chain

There are some early characters when enterprise being financial crisis just as anything has a process. It is saying that "If you prepare, you will success". It also can be applied to today's business operations. Establishing financial crisis warning, which regarding to the enterprise, may distinguishes out the initial finance crisis factor and takes the effective guard measure, speaking of the investor, they can shift investment risk, management account, make the credit decision according to the signal promptly; The legal personnel, may accurately make the judgment avoiding legal proceeding. From the former research, we can also see that financial crisis warning can play a good infect in hedging against risk and reducing the risks. At present, China's financial warning empirical research often comes form abroad, but our business are different from foreign countries'and there is also a lack of industry-specific research in financial indicators distinction. This paper selected sample from manufacturing companies. At first, using rough set theory to reduct financial indexes, which caused financial crisis of enterprise, finding out the major impact indicators and establishing the early warning indicators of the financial system; then using the Markov chain's probability matrix theory and the state distribution theory to compare the early warning capacity of the main indicators with each other , digitize the data of index'warning ablation and establishment an open, dynamic enterprise financial early warning model. It also take an example to certified the availability of model and improve up some countermeasures for financial crisis in end.