An Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Industrial Structure And Economical Growth Of The Three Economical Areas

The industrial structure refers to the inter-combination relations among various industrial departments of national economy. China has obtained the magnificent achievement in the past more than 20 years, and the three industries have obtained the considerable development. And the industrial structure has affected the economical growth in the very great degree. So the research on the relations between the research industrial structure and the economical growth has the practical significance.And the research has the instruction function to the industrial structure adjustment as well as the optimization.Panel data is now an international research heated area. Compared with the cross section data and the time series data, panel data can contain more information. This article uses fixed effect model and random effect model of panel data to analyse the relations between the industrial structure and the economical growth about Chang San Jiao area (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) as well as Jing Jin Ji area (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei). Moreover, because we extend Zhu San Jiao's scope to the entire Guangdong Province, therefore this is a time series. To solve this problem,we use Error Corretion Model(ECM) to fit it,and ECM can handle the collinear problem well. In empirical analysis process, in order to avoid having the collinear problem, we just considered the relations between the economical growth and the second and the third industry. The first industry no consideration, mainly has not been because the second industry and the third industry develops greatly, but the share of the primary industry is smaller and smaller. After the empirical research, we discovered that in Chang San Jiao,Jing Jin Ji and Zhu San Jiao the second industry still accounts for a greater proportion. The second industry of Chang San Jiao influence the economy remarkable, the third industry is not extremely remarkable to its function. The second industry of Jing Jin Ji area has the negative effect to the economical growth, this is possibly because the development of the second industry has had the very great degree influence to the environment. And the third industry has the active effect to the economical growth. To Zhu San Jiao, the second industry influences much more than the third industry. The error correction term of ECM shows the deviation from the long-term equilibrium in the short-term. Finally we compared the three area's industrial structure,and we suggested that we must strengthen the economical technical cooperation, and speed up the industrial promotion.What are innovative in the thesis lie in two points:first, using STATA9.0 to realize the models;second,the use of a new regression method—Panel Data—to analyze the models.