| At present, agriculture is still the first industry in China. As one of the most three important agricultural products, the corn's supply and demand had always been attracting attention of the central government.Since the reform and opening policy was put into practice in China, the output of corn increases from year to year, and varieties in consumption is quite obvious, owing to effect of both a series of intensifying agricultural production polities and development of national stockbreeding. Although the increasing speed of the corn's output is rapid, the corn production layout is very imbalance in China, and the relationship between supply and demand of corn is in a changing state. By analyzing the relationship between supply and demand of corn and studying on the changes between supply and demand of past ten years, the paper predicts the development trends of the corn's supply and demand in the future in China.Whereafter, the development rules of corn market is summarized, and then they are applied to direct Jilin Grain Group purchasing and storage Ltd. to constitute policies, which can adapt changes of market.The factors of influencing the corn's supply and demand mainly includes the national output of corn, the consumption of corn, the circulation of corn, the marketing price'variety condition of corn, the import and export amount of corn, the global output of corn, being a member of WTO's influences on national corn market.The factors that impacting the corn's output mainly involves the sown acreage, the yield of unit acreage, and both of them are direct. The ingredients can affecting the last factor that comprises available resources, technological progress, system innovation, and policy preferences, market scope, price, and so on.The factors can influence consumption on corn covers growth of population, growth of earning, urbanization, current price of corn, and industry development. Through analyzing the factors that affecting the supply and demand of corn, it can be drawn that there is an enormous space for advancing production of corn in our country. Several years later, the probability of the sown acreage of corn becoming more than 29.5 million hectares, the yield of unit acreage achieving 6000 kilogram, and the total output reaching 0.17 billion tons is very great.Based on analyzing the factors that influencing the supply and demand of corn and the changes between supply and demand in close ten years, we can educe that agricultural production in our country can provide sufficient corn in the future ten years. Whereas, the real production output primary depends on profit which will be brought by planting corn at the appointed time. It has to be highlighted that the national corn price is impacted by the demand of marketing and the price of international marketing. By synthesizing the changing trends of the above factors, the paper predicts the corn output of our country reaches 0.15 billion tons, 0.158 billion tons, 0.16 billion tons, and 0.162 billion tons in years 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2015, respectively.As a fact, it is very hard to predict demands of grain in the future. The prediction is not only restricted by lots of factors influencing demands of consumption, which have uncertainty trait, but also authoritative statistic data is very small. For the moment, the methods that are used to predict, such as the analysis models, the subentry forecast, the proportion extrapolation, the analogue analogy, and so on, have remarkable drawbacks. Generally speaking, varieties in demand mostly lie on the quantity of people, earning, urbanization, price of corn, and advancement of industry.Aftertime, the corn consumption state will be presented in our country is that more corn will be provided to people for food, a steady increasing corn will be used to make animal's feed, consumption of industry will continuously increase, the amount of being seed will be stable. By analyzing, the consumption amounts of corn in our country in year 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2015 will be 0.14769 billion tons, 0.15483 billion tons, 0.16047 billion tons, 0.16297 billion tons, and 0.16385 billion tons, respectively.Through analyzing the supply and demand in the future, the corn's supply and demand condition will appear is that, the consumption amount will exceed the output, the price will be higher from year to year, the layout that the north exports and the south imports will come forth, the marketing balance state will be existing for more years, and the price will fluctuate in a great scope and high frequency.As a wholly owed subsidiary company, Jilin Grain Group purchasing and storage Ltd. engages gain's purchasing, storage, gain's futures and spot trade, and distribution of import gain.After the prediction on the relationship between supply and demand of corn market, it can be drawn that the grain trade will confront with more tremendous challenges. In consequence, if Jilin Grain Group purchasing and storage Ltd. wants to survive and develop in such a circumstance, it must analyze and then adjust its strategy. According to the analytic results and objective conditions of the company, this paper presents the following SWOT analysis.The interior superiorites of the company involve six points. Firstly, the purchasing network covers the whole province, so the ability of purchasing is strong. Secondly, the company has an outstanding credit of loan, so the ability of financing is strong, too. Thirdly, the company has a distinguished group of administrators. Fourthly, the logistics capacity is strong. Fifthly, the company has a good customer relationship, and they are loyal. Lastly, to a certain extent, the company has experiences of futures'hedge.On the contrary, the interior inferiorities of the company involve three points. Firstly, the employees'conception drops behind, and consciousness of responsibility is feeble. Secondly, the basic establishments are weak. Lastly, the speed of information feedback is slow.The opportunities of the company include that opportunities is brought by weak balance in the corn's supply and demand, production of corn alcohol causes the corn demand's increase, the amount of corn for both food and animal's feed increases with growth of population, the company can resort to the outstanding customer relationship to gain predominance in exporting corn to the south, the futures of agricultural products develop in a good condition, and the profit of gain storage is rich and generous.The threats of the company include that most of the process enterprises expand their capabilities of production and then lead to increase in purchasing, the load of transportation by railroad becomes bigger, and the price fluctuating in both great scope and high frequency enhances risk of the company.Through implementing the SOWT analysis in the future supply and demand, the paper presents a development plan in two five years of Jilin Grain Group purchasing and storage Ltd. and countermeasures to implement it. Namely, the company should expand trade business, set up the standpoint of marketing operation, establish new mode of enterprise, intensify the build of basic establishments, cultivate competitive predominance of key chains, carry out great client management, broaden distribution network, perfect interior system of management, improve whole administration level, foster excellent corporation culture, and concentrate innovation and development strength. |
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