International Positive Analysis On The Investment Development Path Theory

This paper reviewed the important literatures about the investment and development path (IDP) theory both home and abroad. The author made the general positive analysis towards the common conclusion in the 1st stage, 2nd stage and 3rd stage of IDP theory and different viewpoints in the 4th stage and 5th stage of it. The author collected the great dimensions data from 89 countries and areas during 1980-2006, which is analyzed with the methods of regression, K-means cluster and TSCSREG process in the SPSS and SAS software. The results validated the U shape relationship among the 1st stage, 2nd stage and 3rd stage mentioned by Dunning(1981), but did not support the inverse U shape relationship between the 4th stage and 5th stage mentioned by Dunning and Narula(1996), and on the contrary, it validated the summary in the 4th stage and 5th stage mentioned by Duran and Ubeda(2005), that was there was no distinct difference in IDIPC and NOIPC between the 4th stage and 5th stage, but the distinct difference in ODIPC. Furthermore, the paper validated and confirmed that China was in the 2nd stage and FDI fact accorded with the U shape among the 1st stage, 2nd stage and 3rd stage, and it also analyzed the evolvement character of every FDI stage in China and explained it with the FDI theory. Finally, based on the evolvement from 2nd stage to 3rd stage in other countries and considering China's GDP and FDI data, the paper forecasted the trend of China's FDI, and pointed that the transition year from 2nd stage to 3rd stage in China might be around 2020.