A Positive Analysis Of Credit Rating Of Short-Term Bond's Issuers

The short-term rating is guided by Central Bank " instruction " . But there exists some problems: use the long-term bond rating system and lack of concerns on short-term flowabilitity. This paper use Logit regression model, take the short-term bonds as the sample issued between 2006 and June 31, 2007. It puts six respects of"instruction"altogether16 indexes as independent variables into the model and try to prove to its validity. The result reveals that"quality of enterprise","management ability","profit capacity"have significant effect, while other three respects have no significant effect. According to the characteristic of the short-term bond, this paper puts 5 flowability indexes into a new model. New model have better prediction and goodness of fit. 3 short-term flowability indexes are correlated with rating. This paper establish short-term rating system that includes flowability as the key index.