Research On Innovative Products Diffusion By Social Learning In Wireless Value-Added Services

In the end of the 20th century, the telecom infrastructures have been invested excessively. The competition for basic business had become increasingly brutal in telecom industry. At this time, Telecom Value-added Services for telecom industry developed a broad emerging market. Wireless Value-added Services is the most important part in Telecom Value-added Services. However, it's incredible that, in 2004, the development of Wireless Value-added Services is so difficult in China. In this paper, I research on the innovative product diffusion in Wireless Value-added Services markets. Eventually the heterogeneous adopters'behaviors are revealed in the development of innovative product markets.One common explanation for the diffusion of innovations is information contagion: adoptions occur once they hear about the existence of the innovation from someone else. (Bass, 1969, 1980) However, in this paper, the study bases on imperfect information hypothesis (M. Kaivan, 2004) and social learning in heterogeneous adopters (H. Peyton Young, 2006), and establishes the model of acceleration of innovative product diffusion in Wireless Value-added Services markets.In the specific research process, innovative products are divided into two categories, primary products and its complements, based on the characteristics of products in Wireless Value-added Services markets. And their characteristics of diffusion are studied respectively. Among them, in the study of acceleration of innovative complements diffusion, I establish its model based on Co-diffusion theory (Peterson and Mahajan, 1978), in addition to imperfect information hypothesis (M. Kaivan, 2004) and social learning in heterogeneous adopters (H. Peyton Young, 2006).According to the research, I find that, in the early stages of adoption, the curve of acceleration of primary products and its complements is concave increasingly, while the resistant is low. Subsequently, in the most time, the curve of acceleration is convex decreasingly, while the resistant is increasing. In terms of social learning theory, social learning produces the super-exponential growth rates in the early stages of adoption. However, in Wireless Value-added Services markets, the positive and negative effects to the behaviors of adoption are very significant. It's mainly because, to the most adopters, the perceived gain from adoption is in the middle level. In other words, the adopters think that the expected payoff gain from the innovative products is not enough.In addition, according to the research, I also find, the relationship of primary products and its complements is that the speed of adoption will be accelerated, while the number of adopters for primary products increase. In other words, the number of complements is driven by primary products.